Temperature
No strong signal
Seasonal guidance does not strongly favor an unusually warm or cold winter for the Harper area.
WINTER 2026–27
A wetter winter is favored for Harper and the surrounding Hill Country
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects El Niño to
continue strengthening through the end of the year, with
a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during
fall and winter 2026–27. Harper lies within the broader
southern-Plains region where this pattern generally
favors more opportunities for cool-season precipitation
as the winter storm track becomes more active across the
southern United States.
For Harper and the surrounding Hill Country, the practical
signal is a better chance of useful winter moisture than
during a typically dry winter. Temperature guidance is
less decisive, however, so this does not imply a mild
winter or protection from Arctic outbreaks, hard freezes,
ice, or short dry spells.
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Outlook checked:
Current CPC outlook:
Next scheduled CPC release:
Precipitation
Wetter favored
El Niño increases the odds of above-normal precipitation across parts of the southern United States.
Drought
Improvement possible
Increased cool-season rainfall could improve drought conditions, although recovery is not guaranteed.
Winter Weather
Event risk uncertain
Seasonal outlooks cannot predict individual freezes, snow events, sleet, or ice storms months in advance.
Ranch & Farm Takeaway
Practical interpretation of NOAA/CPC outlooks for the
Harper area. This is not an official NOAA agricultural forecast.
The current large-scale pattern argues for planning around a better chance of cool-season moisture than in a typical dry winter. That could improve pasture conditions and stock-water prospects if the rainfall develops as expected. At the same time, do not relax normal freeze protection, livestock shelter, hay, feed, or water-system preparations. A seasonal outlook describes the overall pattern; it does not tell us whether Harper will experience a particular Arctic outbreak, hard freeze, snowstorm, or ice event.
Guidance may change as NOAA/CPC updates its seasonal outlooks.
Check back for revised local interpretation.
Official NOAA / CPC Outlooks
Seasonal Temperature
Probability outlook comparing the coming three-month period with the historical climate record.
View CPC temperature outlook →Seasonal Precipitation
Probability outlook for above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal precipitation.
View CPC precipitation outlook →Drought Outlook
CPC assessment of where drought is expected to persist, improve, develop, or end.
View CPC drought outlook →El Niño / La Niña
ENSO is one of the strongest large-scale influences on southern U.S. winter weather patterns.
View CPC ENSO information →Weather Geek Deep Dive Probabilities, climate drivers and CPC technical discussion
ENSO Status
Strengthening El Niño
CPC gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during fall and winter 2026–27.
Peak Strength
75% historic-event chance
For October–December 2026, CPC assigns a 75% chance that this event exceeds the strength of previous El Niño events in the modern record.
Southern Plains Precipitation
40–50% above-normal odds
During the strongest part of the winter signal, CPC places the southern Plains in roughly the 40–50% probability range for above-normal precipitation.
Main Climate Driver
Southern storm track
A strong El Niño favors a more active southern storm track, increasing opportunities for cool-season precipitation across Texas and the southern United States.
CPC Seasonal Temperature Outlook
Official NOAA/CPC lead-1 seasonal temperature outlook.
Click the map for the current CPC product.
CPC Seasonal Precipitation Outlook
Official NOAA/CPC lead-1 seasonal precipitation outlook.
Click the map for the current CPC product.
Historic-Strength El Niño Probability
CPC probability that the developing El Niño
exceeds previous events in the modern record.
Southern Plains Winter Precipitation
33%
40%
50%
60%
40–50%
chance of above-normal precipitation
The climatological baseline for any one
category is approximately 33%. The current
CPC outlook shifts the odds toward wetter
conditions.
What CPC is watching
Ocean and atmosphere indicators are strongly coupled and consistent with a strengthening El Niño. CPC is watching the magnitude of the event, the persistence of the Pacific circulation pattern, and whether newer model guidance supports increasing or decreasing the winter precipitation probabilities.
What changed?
No reviewed change has been detected since the current Harper interpretation was prepared.